JPMorgan Sees Humanoids Filling Half Of Unfilled US Factory Jobs By 2030

Humanoid robots could fill about 25% of unfilled U.S. manufacturing jobs, rising to 50% by 2030 as the technology improves, JPMorgan analysts estimate in a research note reported by MarketWatch on Aug. 25. The jobs include materials handling, parts transfers, machine tending and quality inspections. 

The cost case is the note's core argument. JPMorgan estimates humanoids deployed in warehousing will cost about $10 to $12 an hour to operate, compared with roughly $30 an hour for human labor. 

The bank's own math also shows the gap that remains. It currently takes two humanoids to match the output of one human worker, a ratio JPMorgan expects to improve to 1.2 to 1.3 robots as the technology advances. The analysts described humanoids as complements to human labor rather than substitutes, and all of the figures are estimates, not measured deployment results. 

The note was written by JPMorgan's analysts covering Hyundai Motor and Kia. Hyundai's robotics exposure runs through Boston Dynamics: Hyundai Motor Group agreed in July to buy SoftBank's remaining 9.65% stake for about $325 million, taking full ownership of the robot maker, according to The Korea Times. The group has said it plans to build 30,000 humanoid robots a year for its factories by 2028, per Axios. 

JPMorgan named three bottlenecks: AI "brains," robotic hands and supply-chain readiness. Hyundai is working on the AI and supply-chain elements, according to the note, while dexterous hands remain a harder problem, and the bank said Hyundai may source hands from a third-party supplier. 

On price, JPMorgan estimated an average selling price of about $120,000 per unit, far above the $20,000 to $30,000 long-term target Tesla CEO Elon Musk has floated for the Optimus robot. Industrial buyers are likely to prioritize reliability and upgradability over a low list price, the note said. 

The note arrives amid a volatile stretch for humanoid stocks. Unitree Robotics, which peaked at a roughly $66 billion valuation after its Shanghai debut last week, has since fallen about 45%, Reuters reported, with its adjusted first-quarter profit down 53% to 40 million yuan.